Predictive Modeling and Categorizing Likelihoods of Quarantine Pest Introduction of Imported Propagative Commodities from Different Countries.

The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the risk of country-commodity combinations based on quarantine pest interceptions. Data collected from October 2014 to January 2016 were used for developing predictive models and validation study. A generalized linear model with Bayesian inference and a generalized linear mixed effects model were used to compare the interception rates of quarantine pests on different country-commodity combinations. Prediction ability of generalized linear mixed effects models was greater than that of generalized linear models. The estimated pest interception probability and confidence interval for each country-commodity combination was categorized into one of four compliance levels: "High," "Medium," "Low," and "Poor/Unacceptable," Using K-means clustering analysis. This study presents risk-based categorization for each country-commodity combination based on the probability of quarantine pest interceptions and the uncertainty in that assessment.

Suitability of Creeping Bentgrass and Bermudagrass Cultivars for Black Cutworms and Fall Armyworms (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

The black cutworm, Agrotis ipsilon Hufnagel, and fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda Smith (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), are common turfgrass pests of golf courses in the southeastern United States. Heat-tolerant bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera L.) cultivars are expanding the range of bentgrass further south, but these cultivars have not been studied for their potential host plant resistance to black cutworm or fall armyworm. The goals of the study were to investigate feeding response of black cutworm and fall armyworm to these newer heat-tolerant creeping bentgrass cultivars, as well as commonly used cultivars of bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (Loppers.)]. Choice and no-choice feeding assays and fecundity tests were conducted in the laboratory and greenhouse to evaluate performance and preference of the two insects. When given a choice, neither black cutworm nor fall armyworm showed a preference for the majority of new cultivars tested. There were no differences in leaf area consumption or insect development for either pest in no-choice feeding assays. Black cutworm females preferred laying eggs in bentgrass compared with bermudagrass, but will oviposit onto bermudagrass, suggesting that both turf species are suitable hosts of this pest. The broad host ranges of generalist caterpillar pests of turfgrass hinder the application of host plant resistance in integrated pest management on golf courses.